Was reading this news on whether Trump would be a challenge for Chinese-led development banks AIIB and NDB. Here is the blurb hyperlinked to the whole story, and why I think that more Trump, is the outcome of upcoming elections in France and The Netherlands that could be the chief hurdle, if at all.
With the US president Donald Trump entering the stage, two new China-backed multilateral banks, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) of Brics nations, may face a rough ride ahead, analysts say.
“China has gained in terms of ‘soft power’ because it could bring several European powers on the table through AIIB. At present, a lot of European countries are concerned about what they see in the US. This might increase potential cooperation between China and the European countries,” says Julian Evans-Pritchard, the China economist for Capital Economics……
Is Trump’s protectionist policy the real danger to Chinese-led banks? Is stepping out of the TPP the real threat? Or, is there some other hidden variable at work here? Holland and France go to Presidential polls this year and with BREXIT negotiations looming large, its the likelihood of referendum of the BREXIT kind in France and Holland once right of the centre parties are elected to power there, where there is a high probability of such happenings there.The rise of Alt-Right political parties in both countries such as the Front National (FN) led by Marine Le Pen in France and The Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders in the Netherlands could trigger the end of the European Union. AIIB, especially, since it has Europeans along its corridors. Moreover, US infrastructure is getting outmoded by the day and according to promises delivered by Trump during his electioneering, his focus would concentrate on domestic infrastructural projects, rather than get into the glamour created by the likes of multi-laterals and that too Chinese for the time being. Moreover, with his presidency the idea is to thaw the relationship between the US and Russia and stymying AIIB or NDB could be perplexing for that to happen unnecessarily. And would Russia really be subdued to these emanating pressures to put a period? As of now, it won’t look into the aspects of a cold relationship with China at US’s expense. While Trump labelled China a currency manipulator and threatened trade wars, he might have a more open attitude towards China-backed institutions and investment programmes. According to Jin Liquin, Chair of AIIB, “I was told that many in his (Trump’s) team have an opinion that Obama was not right not to join the AIIB, especially after Canada joined, which was a very loud endorsement of the bank.” So, the options are soft, but for reasons on domesticity, these might be the hard ones to steer clear for the US. What really should be taken into account is consensus on right-wing victories in the upcoming elections in Europe and a concomitant string of protectionist policies in their wake that could really be the derailing point for these Chinese-led development banks. As Josep Goded says, this year will be full of threats and challenges for global society.The potential disintegration of the European Union represents one of these, but no one knows how it will end. History is full of threats and challenge that are often happily resolved. The elections in The Netherlands and France will be all about choosing between tolerance or intolerance, war or peace, friendship or enemies, future or past…Their citizens will have an enormous advantage since they can see what Trump is doing in the U.S. and based on that they will make an important decision that will change the world for the better or worse.