Credit Default Swaps.

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Credit default swaps are the most liquid instruments in the credit derivatives markets, accounting for nearly half of the total outstanding notional worldwide, and up to 85% of total outstanding notional of contracts with reference to emerging market issuers. In a CDS, the protection buyer pays a premium to the protection seller in exchange for a contingent payment in case a credit event involving a reference security occurs during the contract period.

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The premium (default swap spread) reflects the credit risk of the bond issuer, and is usually quoted as a spread over a reference rate such as LIBOR or the swap rate, to be paid either up front, quarterly, or semiannually. The contingent payment can be settled either by physical delivery of the reference security or an equivalent asset, or in cash. With physical settlement, the protection buyer delivers the reference security (or equivalent one) to the protection seller and receives the par amount. With cash settlement, the protection buyer receives a payment equal to the difference between par and the recovery value of the reference security, the latter determined from a dealer poll or from price quote services. Contracts are typically subject to physical settlement. This allows protection sellers to benefit from any rebound in prices caused by the rush to purchase deliverable bonds by protection buyers after the realization of the credit event.

In mature markets, trading is highly concentrated on 5 year contracts, and to certain extent, market participants consider these contracts a ‘‘commodity.’’ Usual contract maturities are 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The coexistence of markets for default swaps and bonds raises the issue on whether prices in the former merely mirrors market expectations already reflected in bond prices. If credit risk were the only factor affecting the CDS spread, with credit risk characterized by the probability of default and the expected loss given default, the CDS spread and the bond spread should be approximately similar, as a portfolio of a default swap contract and a defaultable bond is essentially a risk-free asset.

However, market frictions and some embedded options in the CDS contract, such as the cheapest-to-deliver option, cause CDS spreads and bond spreads to diverge. The difference between these two spreads is referred to as the default swap basis. The default swap basis is positive when the CDS spread trades at a premium relative to the bond spread, and negative when the CDS spread trades at a discount.

Several factors contribute to the widening of the basis, either by widening the CDS spread or tightening the bond spread. Factors that tend to widen the CDS spread include: (1) the cheapest-to-deliver option, since protection sellers must charge a higher premium to account for the possibility of being delivered a less valuable asset in physically settled contracts; (2) the issuance of new bonds and/or loans, as increased hedging by market makers in the bond market pushes up the price of protection, and the number of potential cheapest-to-deliver assets increases; (3) the ability to short default swaps rather than bonds when the bond issuer’s credit quality deteriorates, leading to increased protection buying in the market; and (4) bond prices trading less than par, since the protection seller is guaranteeing the recovery of the par amount rather than the lower current bond price.

Factors that tend to tighten bond spreads include: (1) bond clauses allowing the coupon to step up if the issue is downgraded, as they provide additional benefits to the bondholder not enjoyed by the protection buyer and (2) the zero-lower bound for default swap premiums causes the basis to be positive when bond issuers can trade below the LIBOR curve, as is often the case for higher rated issues.

Similarly, factors that contribute to the tightening of the basis include: (1) existence of greater counterparty risk to the protection buyer than to the protection seller, so buyers are compensated by paying less than the bond spread; (2) the removal of funding risk for the protection seller, as selling protection is equivalent to funding the asset at LIBOR. Less risk demands less compensation and hence, a tightening in the basis; and (3) the increased supply of structured products such as CDS-backed collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), as they increase the supply of protection in the market.

Movements in the basis depend also on whether the market is mainly dominated by high cost investors or low cost investors. A long credit position, i.e., holding the credit risk, can be obtained either by selling protection or by financing the purchase of the risky asset. The CDS remains a viable alternative if its premium does not exceed the difference between the asset yield and the funding cost. The higher the funding cost, the lower the premium and hence, the tighter the basis. Thus, when the market share of low cost investors is relatively high and the average funding costs are below LIBOR, the basis tends to widen. Finally, relative liquidity also plays a role in determining whether the basis narrows or widens, as investors need to be compensated by wider spreads in the less liquid market. Hence, if the CDS market is more liquid than the corresponding underlying bond market (cash market), the basis will narrow and vice versa.

Accelerating the Synthetic Credit. Thought of the Day 96.0

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The structural change in the structured credit universe continues to accelerate. While the market for synthetic structures is already pretty well established, many real money accounts remain outsiders owing to regulatory hurdles and technical limitations, e.g., to participate in the correlation market. Therefore, banks are continuously establishing new products to provide real money accounts with access to the structured market, with Constant proportion debt obligation (CPDOs) recently having been popular. Against this background, three vehicles which offer easy access to structured products for these investors have gained in importance: CDPCs (Credit Derivatives Product Company), PCVs (permanent capital vehicle), and SIVs (structured investment vehicles).

A CDPC is a rated company which buys credit risk via all types of credit derivative instruments, primarily super senior tranches, and sells this risk to investors via preferred shares (equity) or subordinated notes (debt). Hence, the vehicle uses super senior risk to create equity risk. The investment strategy is a buy-and-hold approach, while the aim is to offer high returns to investors and keep default risk limited. Investors are primarily exposed to rating migration risk, to mark-to-market risk, and, finally, to the capability of the external manager. The rating agencies assign, in general, an AAA-rating on the business model of the CDPC, which is a bankruptcy remote vehicle (special purpose vehicle [SPV]). The business models of specific CDPCs are different from each other in terms of investments and thresholds given to the manager. The preferred asset classes CDPC invested in are predominantly single-name CDS (credit default swaps), bespoke synthetic tranches, ABS (asset-backed security), and all kinds of CDOs (collateralized debt obligations). So far, CDPCs main investments are allocated to corporate credits, but CDPCs are extending their universe to ABS (Asset Backed Securities) and CDO products, which provide further opportunities in an overall tight spread environment. The implemented leverage is given through the vehicle and can be in the range of 15–60x. On average, the return target was typically around a 15% return on equity, paid in the form of dividends to the shareholders.

In contrast to CDPCs, PCVs do not invest in the top of the capital structure, but in equity pieces (mostly CDO equity pieces). The leverage is not implemented in the vehicle itself as it is directly related to the underlying instruments. PCVs are also set up as SPVs (special purpose vehicles) and listed on a stock exchange. They use the equity they receive from investors to purchase the assets, while the return on their investment is allocated to the shareholders via dividends. The target return amounts, in general, to around 10%. The portfolio is managed by an external manager and is marked-to-market. The share price of the company depends on the NAV (net asset value) of the portfolio and on the expected dividend payments.

In general, an SIV invests in the top of the capital structure of structured credits and ABS in line with CDPCs. In addition, SIVs also buy subordinated debt of financial institutions, and the portfolio is marked-to-market. SIVs are leveraged credit investment companies and bankruptcy remote. The vehicle issues typically investment-grade rated commercial paper, MTNs (medium term notes), and capital notes to its investors. The leverage depends on the character of the issued note and the underlying assets, ranging from 3 to 5 (bank loans) up to 14 (structured credits).